Will Incompetence End Boris Johnson's Reign
See my previous post about the events leading up to this. Then read this:
On this 17 December the voters of North Shropshire gave the Tories a bloody nose. And for what? If the Government had not forced a vote to overturn Owen Paterson’s 30 day suspension given to him for breaking standards rules, then he would not have had to resign after the furore caused by the vote.
Then there would not have been a by-election in which the Conservatives lost. It shows the poor judgement of the Government in getting the mood of the country so very wrong.
And that will cause the Grandees in the party to desert Boris Johnson all the more. The only thing lacking is a replacement.
When Owen Paterson was voted in, he had a 23,000 majority. Look now where the Conservatives are:
North Shropshire by-election result
Votes
Lib Dem Helen Morgan 17,957
Con Neil Shastri-Hurst 12,032
Lab Ben Wood 3,686
Green Duncan Kerr 1,738
Which, if any, traditional Labour voters voted tactically? Which voters switched parties from Labour to Lib Dem intending it to be a longer term move? Those are questions that analysts in all parties will be looking at now.
I don’t know how easy it is to get to the numbers. People acting on behalf of the various parties often ask people after they have voted, if they would say how they voted. Even if that gave an accurate picture, it doesn’t say whether those who voted, voted tactically or from a change of allegiance. Maybe it is time for some doorstep polls to find out what the mood of the country is.